Beware of "Grey Rhino" Power Lithium Battery Production Expansion
From January to November, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in my country reached 2.99 million, a year-on-year increase of 166.8 percent . Since the first November, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 12.7 percent . In addition, as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeds the critical point of 10 percent , the sales of new energy vehicles are breaking new records month by month, and the penetration rate is expected to exceed 20 percent in 2022.
The demand for power lithium-ion batteries on the vehicle side is also constantly jumping. Under the new development pattern, battery companies aimed at market trends and started a new wave of "capacity expansion". Ningde era, the output is expected to reach 320GWh by the end of 2022, and the output in 2025 is expected to exceed 670GWh; BYD, the planned output in 2025 will exceed 600GWh; AVIC Lithium Power, the planned output in 2025 is 500GWh, and the output in 2030 is 1TWh...
So, how do you view the expansion of power lithium-ion battery production? From December 14th to 15th, "The Sixth International Summit on Power Li-ion Battery Application (CBIS2021)" was held in Ganzhou, Jiangxi. Companies and institutions from upstream and downstream of the entire vehicle, power lithium-ion battery, materials, equipment and other industrial chains have conducted in-depth discussions on this topic.
The expansion of power lithium-ion battery production is becoming a trend
Since 2021, the two key words for the development of power lithium-ion batteries are: price increases and production expansion.
According to public information, as my country's leading power lithium-ion battery company CATL, the planned output in 2025 is expected to exceed 670GWh, and the output planning area involves Fujian Ningde, Sichuan, Qinghai, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Shanghai and other places. BYD's production expansion speed is not as fast as that of CATL. According to preliminary statistics, BYD's planned output in 2025 is expected to exceed 600GWh, involving Guangdong, Qinghai, Chongqing, Hunan, Xi'an, Guizhou, Jiangsu, Hubei, Zhejiang and other provinces and cities. At present, AVIC Lithium Battery, which ranks third in the installed capacity of power lithium-ion batteries, also has a production plan of 500GWh in 2025. Yiwei Lithium Energy will build a production capacity of 200GWh in 2023. Guoxuan Hi-Tech's production plan in 2025 is 300GWh...According to the incomplete statistics of batteries in my country, since the beginning of this year, the newly planned output of domestic and foreign top battery companies has approached 2500GWh.
Liu Yanlong, secretary-general of the my country Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, emphasized that the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market has increased rapidly this year. This shows that with the continuous maturity of power lithium-ion battery technology, consumers' acceptance of electric vehicles has increased significantly.
Judging from the latest installed capacity, data from the Power Li-ion Battery Application Branch shows that from January to November this year, the installed capacity of power lithium-ion batteries in the Chinese market was about 128.3GWh, an increase of 153.1 percent year-on-year, and the annual installed capacity is expected to be close to 150GWh. In addition, from the perspective of battery technology, on the one hand, lithium iron phosphate batteries are favored by the market due to their advantages in economy and safety. From January to November this year, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the Chinese market reached 64.8GWh, which was higher than the 63.3GWh installed capacity of ternary batteries for the first time.
It is worth mentioning that the cost advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries has also attracted the attention and favor of many large car companies around the world, including Tesla, Volkswagen, Daimler, GM, Ford, Hyundai and other international mainstream car companies. They all indicated that they would introduce lithium iron phosphate batteries, and battery companies such as LG New Energy and SKI are also accelerating the deployment of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Liu Yanlong pointed out that under the background of the reform of the global automobile industry and the tightening of carbon emission policies, the pace of electrification of mainstream car companies has accelerated, and the energy storage industry will also enter a stage of large-scale development. "Based on this judgment, the expansion of power lithium-ion batteries has also entered the fast lane. The domestic and foreign leading battery companies have all expanded their production by hundreds of GWh this year. In the future, the market demand for upstream materials of power lithium-ion batteries will also be 'rising all boats'. .We predict that the TWh era of power and energy storage battery demand will arrive before 2025."
Power lithium-ion battery "price surge" followed closely
The hot spot parallel to the expansion of production is the tide of price increases. Not long ago, the "battery shortage" of power lithium-ion batteries has not dissipated, and the topic of price increases has pushed the power lithium-ion battery industry to the forefront. Recently, many mainstream power lithium-ion battery companies such as BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Penghui Energy have issued price increase letters. According to media reports, due to the rising downstream demand for electric vehicles and energy storage, at the beginning of next year, the price of cylindrical lithium-ion battery cells will increase again by 5 percent -15 percent .
Since the beginning of this year, the upstream raw materials of power lithium-ion batteries have also risen. The data shows that lithium carbonate at 40,000 yuan/ton in 2020 has now risen to 210,000/ton; lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen from 100,000 yuan/ton in 2020 to 550,000/ton; electrolyte has also risen from 40,000 yuan/ton in 2020 to 120,000/ton; PVDF rose from 80,000/ton in 2020 to 500,000/ton; VC rose from 200,000/ton in 2020 to 400,000/ton.
Wu Feng, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and professor of Beijing Institute of Technology, emphasized that, driven by the increase in sales of new energy vehicles and the demand for power lithium-ion batteries, the demand for various materials for power lithium-ion batteries has also increased significantly since the beginning of this year, such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide. , cathodes, anodes, separators, electrolytes, lithium hexafluorophosphate, etc. prices have generally risen, and some materials have risen five or six times. The tension between supply and demand has become prominent, causing great cost pressure to battery companies and is not conducive to the new energy vehicle industry. The demand for overall cost reduction.
Regarding the reasons for the increase in the price of upstream raw materials, Fang Jianhua, partner and president of the New Energy Vehicle Venture Sub-fund of the National Science and Technology Achievement Fund, analyzed three reasons. First of all, the quantitative easing brought about by the once-in-a-century epidemic in 2020 will bring about the inflation of global commodities. In the field of power lithium-ion batteries, it is inevitable that global energy prices and mineral prices have risen. Second, the sudden change in the supply and demand relationship and the insufficient supply of upstream materials for power lithium-ion batteries have led to a gradual increase in supply prices. Third, during the adjustment period of the industrial chain, the previous price reductions and delays by OEMs and battery factories on upstream material companies have led to frustrations in the motivation of upstream suppliers to expand production, and now it has evolved into a "retaliatory" price increase.
Wu Feng said that in the long run, lithium battery materials will face resource shortages, as well as nickel, cobalt and other resources, and the industry must take precautions. After years of development, my country's new energy vehicle and power lithium-ion battery industry has entered a critical period.
Fang Jianhua emphasized that my country's new energy vehicle industry has gone through three stages. The first stage is the savage rise stage from 2010 to 2016; the second stage is the adjustment and reshuffle stage from 2017 to 2020. A large number of companies are in this stage. Closing down; the third stage is the rapid growth stage starting in 2021.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, due to the scarcity and the impact of international competition, the supply and demand relationship will be tense for a long time for the upstream cobalt, nickel, lithium and other mineral resources of power lithium-ion batteries. Midstream positive and negative materials, electrolytes, diaphragms, etc., are mainly affected by insufficient production in a short period of time, and will achieve a balance between supply and demand in 1-2 years. For the downstream power lithium-ion battery factory, the current real demand does not match the existing output, the effective output is insufficient, and the existing planning far exceeds expectations.
Cold thinking on the frenzy of lithium battery expansion
Judging from the expansion plans of major power lithium-ion batteries, this round of expansion can be described as "crazy". Under this trend, we are asked to think coldly.
Judging from the 128.3GWh installed capacity of power lithium-ion batteries in my country's market from January to November, the market share of the top ten installed capacity exceeds 92 percent . Among them, the total installed capacity of CATL is about 65.93GWh, accounting for 51.39 percent of the month, and the total installed capacity of other companies is about 62GWh. In the face of such a huge expansion plan in the future, will the power lithium-ion battery industry chain have such a huge production demand?
"my country's new energy vehicles will have a compound growth rate of more than 30 percent in the future. This year is 3.4 million, next year is expected to be 5.1 million, and it will reach 9 million by 2025. This is a basic certainty issue." Fang Jianhua roughly According to calculations, if it is inferred from the number of 9 million new energy vehicles, the total demand for power lithium-ion batteries is only about 600GWh. In addition, even considering the demand for new energy vehicle batteries in overseas markets, the total planned volume of 2500GWh is in excess. "On the one hand, we need to think coldly when the industry is hot, and on the other hand, we need to consider the real demand, whether there is a mature technology behind the expansion, whether the management ability can keep up, and whether the supply chain can guarantee ."
Fang Jianhua said that the battery factory should consider at least these five factors when expanding production: the first real demand. "If my country's new energy vehicles reach 18 million by 2030. At present, except for the Ningde era, whether other battery companies can achieve a 5 percent share is already considerable. With the market share of power lithium-ion batteries unchanged, 10 million vehicles. The proportion of 5 percent of electric vehicles is only 500,000, and the installed capacity is only about 30GWh. And this is only obtained by competing with CATL, BYD, and foreign companies." In Fang Jianhua's view, the company is expanding In production, understanding the real needs is crucial.
Second, whether the stability of the technical process can support rapid production expansion. The climbing stage after the expansion of power lithium-ion battery production is a painful process that requires a lot of human, financial and material resources. Therefore, the stability of the process technology is also particularly important.
Third, the management level. Fang Jianhua emphasized, "There are not enough people involved in the management of remote factories. Once the management is not in place, the consequences will be huge."
Fourth, whether the supply chain can be guaranteed. "The one who has the supplier wins the world. In the current supply chain, the company must advance and retreat together with the supply chain when expanding production. There must be a strong supply chain guarantee system."
Fifth, financial capital security. Fang Jianhua further explained that the blessing of the local government and market capital is only temporary. The company has not formed its own hematopoietic capacity, and without sufficient profits, it will not last in the process of expansion. "If there is no sustainable funding guarantee, this blind expansion will eventually become a 'gray rhino'."
