In 2022, my country's new energy vehicle sales are expected to increase by 47 percent year-on-year
Am 14. Dezember sagte Chen Shihua, stellvertretender Generalsekretär des Verbands der Automobilhersteller meines Landes, auf dem Prognosegipfel für die Entwicklung des Automobilmarkts meines Landes 2022, dass der Verkauf von Neuwagen in meinem Land voraussichtlich 27,5 Millionen im Jahr 2022 erreichen wird. eine Steigerung von 5,4 Prozent-gegenüber-Jahr. Der Absatz von New Energy Vehicles wird 5 Millionen erreichen, was einem Anstieg von 47 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr entspricht.2022 Das Chipversorgungsproblem wird auch im nächsten Jahr noch bestehen. Das Chipangebot wird bis Ende nächsten Jahres ein knappes Gleichgewicht erreichen.
Das Chip-Angebot wird im nächsten Jahr ausgeglichen sein
On the basis that the cumulative sales of new cars in my country's auto market in the first 11 months of this year have reached 23.489 million units, the China Automobile Association predicts that my country's total auto sales in 2021 will be 26.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.1 percent . Among them, the sales volume of passenger vehicles was 21.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.6 percent ; the sales volume of commercial vehicles was 4.8 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4 percent ; the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 3.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times.
Chen Shihua analyzed that in 2021, due to the increasing shortage of automotive chips in the third quarter, the monthly trend of my country's auto market will be characterized by highs and lows. From January to October 2021, there will be a gap of about 750,000 vehicles in my country's auto market due to chip supply issues. Considering the next two months, the shortage of chip supply will lead to a reduction of 1.3 million to 1.4 million vehicles in my country's auto market this year.
Die China Automobile Association prognostiziert, dass der Trend des Automarktes im nächsten Jahr umgekehrt sein wird und die Merkmale von niedrig vor und hoch aufweisen wird. Chen Shihua glaubt, dass die Eröffnung der Olympischen Winterspiele in der ersten Hälfte des nächsten Jahres einen gewissen Einfluss auf die Produktion von Automobilunternehmen- in Nordchina haben wird und das Problem der Chipversorgung bis nächstes Jahr andauern wird. Das Chipangebot wird bis Ende nächsten Jahres ein knappes Gleichgewicht erreichen.
Regarding the trend of my country's auto market in 2022, the my country Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimates that my country's total auto sales in 2022 will be 27.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.4 percent . Among them, the sales of passenger vehicles were 23 million units, an increase of 8 percent year-on-year; the sales of commercial vehicles were 4.5 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6 percent ; the sales of new energy vehicles were 5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47 percent .
Chen Shihua said that in addition to chips, there are multiple factors that are conducive to the development of the auto market next year. For example, in 2022, my country's macro economy will continue to recover steadily, macro policies will promote automobile consumption, epidemic prevention and control will continue to improve, overseas demand will be strong, chip supply will gradually recover, and new energy vehicle exports will continue to increase.
Chen Shihua believes that from the perspective of long-term development, my country's automobile market is still in the transition stage from the early stage of popularization to the later stage of popularization, and the sales of new cars are gradually shifting from the incremental market to the stock market. Although there were fluctuations in my country's automobile market in 2018, throughout history, the developed countries also experienced fluctuations of about 2-4 years in the popularization stage. Judging from this law, the production and sales of my country's automobile market is currently at the end of a short-term adjustment, and will maintain a moderate upward trend in the future.
Der Markt für neue Energiefahrzeuge könnte in eine explosive Phase eintreten
Fu Bingfeng, Executive Vice President und Generalsekretär des Verbandes der Automobilhersteller meines Landes, wies darauf hin, dass die Nachfrage der Verbraucher auf dem Markt im Jahr 2021 weiterhin einen Trend zur Qualitätsverbesserung und -aufrüstung zeigen werde und die gesamte Automobilproduktion und -verkäufe weiterhin anhalten werden stetiger Anstieg, und es gibt viele Lichtblicke. Die kumulierte Produktion von New Energy Vehicles in den ersten 11 Monaten überstieg 3 Millionen und das Verkaufsvolumen lag bei fast 3 Millionen. Es wird erwartet, dass das jährliche Verkaufsvolumen 3,4 Millionen erreichen wird, was einer -jährlichen Steigerung- um das 1,6-fache entspricht. Die Vermarktung von Fahrzeugen mit neuer Energie ist in eine neue Phase explosiven Wachstums eingetreten, das sich in der Vergangenheit von einer Politik -gesteuert zu einer Marktgesteuert-verlagert hat.
In Fu Bingfeng's view, a new round of technological revolution is empowering the transformation of the automobile industry and accelerating the progress towards "electrification, networking, and intelligence". important strategic choices for development. The continuous improvement of people's living standards continues to drive the consumption upgrade of the automobile market, and the proportion of mid-to-high-end automobile sales has increased year by year, which has also brought new development opportunities for automobile companies. He also pointed out that external adverse effects such as anti-globalization, continued epidemics, and high raw material prices have also brought uncertainty to the development of the auto industry. my country's auto industry should be alert to the possible impact of changes in the external environment.
Wang Qing, stellvertretender Direktor des Marktwirtschaftsforschungsinstituts des Entwicklungsforschungszentrums des Staatsrates, prognostiziert, dass die Nachfrage nach Automobilen 2022 weiter leicht anziehen wird. Das Verkaufsvolumen von Automobilen liegt bei rund 27 Millionen Einheiten, ein Anstieg von 3 Prozent -5 Prozent-im Jahresvergleich, und das Muster von Tiefs vor und Hochs während des ganzen Jahres wird bestehen bleiben .
Lin Huaibin, head of IHSMarkit's light vehicle sales forecast in my country, believes that the development of new energy vehicles in China has ushered in a turning point for fuel vehicles. Considering the comprehensive cost, the current electric vehicle has reached a level that is basically the same as that of the fuel vehicle, and the cost performance advantage of the electric vehicle has been very obvious. It should be seen that while the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rapidly increasing, the market penetration rate of autonomous driving is also rapidly increasing. If chips can be supplied stably, my country's new energy vehicle market share will account for 17 percent -18 percent in 2022.
Mei Songlin, vice president of strategic operations of WM Motor Group, believes that the current penetration rate of electric vehicles in the new energy vehicle market has increased significantly, and the electric vehicle market is close to an inflection point of 16 percent . After crossing this inflection point, my country's new energy vehicles will enter an outbreak period, and electric vehicles must attack the mid-end market of traditional fuel vehicles, that is, the A-class vehicle market.
In diesem Zusammenhang glaubt auch Bai Ling, ein Branchenforschungsexperte der Produktplanungsabteilung von Chongqing Changan, dass sich der Markt für neue Energiefahrzeuge im Jahr 2022 allmählich von einer Hantel- zu einer Spindelform wandeln wird. Der Anteil wird schrittweise steigen.
